As a busy blogger and a disabled and ageing Scotsman, I am always looking for any business opportunity that offers me a chance to earn a crust.
Gambling often appears to be a quick solution. For many years, I dabbled with stocks and shares and at one time paid a private consulting firm. This didn’t work. I was successful, after a fashion, for a number of years, and then my illness got in the way costing me thousands in very poor investments.
Finding a New Business Opportunity
I have recently been experimenting with gambling on sporting events thinking that I could chase the odd. This venture quickly became very ill-advised. You cannot simply chase the odds.
Therefore, it was time to take stock of the situation. It only took losing seven bets on the bounce to make me realise that this was not going to be a profitable business model.
First of all, I need to treat gambling as a serious business opportunity, and do the requisite analysis and research. My first port of call was Google to start my investigation. So, I asked “how do professional gamblers operate?” and it took me to: “The Art of Manliness” which wsn’t quite what I had in mind.
I glanced quickly at a couple of other sites then “How to Become a Professional Gambler” caught my eye. This was a more measured approach to being a professional gambling.
Everyday punt taking
A survey of 4,000 adults revealed the following to be the most popular forms of online gambling:
- Virtual dog or horse races
- Online casino games
- Virtual gaming machines in bookmakers
- Online bingo
- Fruit or slot machines
- Online spread betting
However, I am not keen on most forms of online gambling as pseudo random numbers are not genuine random numbers.
As a result of extensive testing that I have done with online Roulette. I have proved to my own satisfaction that pseudo random number systems do not represent a business opportunity.
Finding the Business Opportunity
Therefore, tennis has been chosen as the sport with the greatest chance of success. Tennis is a sport the I enjoy watching and consider myself as a well qualified armchair pundit.
Furthermore, at the age of 60 with a chronic autoimmune disease, I certainly do not intend taking up playing tennis professionally.
But, tennis has fewer variables to consider than football, another sport I looked at. I am a computer programmer, so it should be quite straight forward to write a serviceable tracking program.
Having a program to analyse the results should make future decision making far more reliable. One of the weaknesses I have, due to my illness, is very poor memory recall.
Therefore, it is imperative that I automate this process as far as possible. The final decision will still be my own. The computer program will simply be to aid memory and have all the recent match statistics easily to hand.
The Business Opportunity Timescale
As has happened too often in the past, I rush headlong into a new project. That will not happen on this occasion. I will plan every detail of this project with extreme care and diligence.
I have chosen to leave the project end date open. But, a worst case scenario of ready for Wimbledon 2018, would be nice.
Source of Information
While I may be flexible about the timescale for this new business opportunity. I must be exacting with my source of information.
Hence, the web sites I intend to use, to gather player and match information, must be both reliable and reputable.
The above web sites are official player and game sites. Only summary stats are provided for each game.
As a result, the original analysis model will need revision. However, working with only summary stats should make the analysis simpler.
The Tracking and Analysis Model
First of all, we need to decide on the game variables that we can track. And, having decided on the information that is freely available, decide how do we use this to assess the probable outcome of any future game.
- Venue Playing Surface
- Player Preferred Surface
- Player World Ranking
- Seeding at tournament
- Player Match History
The first problem that we encounter is match statistic availability. Different tournaments at different venues make only limited match statistics available. Furthermore, this match information is only published for a limited time.
Another consideration is the availability of time to collate these results. The tennis season is almost all year round, with tournaments all around the World.
Viable Business Opportunity
In conclusion, to establish if this is a genuine business opportunity will require thorough testing.
However, due to time constraints, health issues and other life commitments, this will be difficult to accomplish. It will not be possible to run a trial on a part-time basis.
Because of the real-time nature of sporting results, data analysis would need to be carried out full-time. At the present time, this is not a realistic goal.
Consequently, I have talked myself out of this proposition. At least, for the time being.